Thursday, October 16, 2008

Risk Assessment & Horizon Scanning (RAHS)

I thought this was some high-tech independent omnipotent computer system that detects threats before they happen. Think Minority Report.

Turns out our system is a bit more boring lah. Essentially, what it does is it allows data researchers and analysts to do their work better & more effectively by trawling Internet media sources for information. Here, factors like bias, credibility & motive are considered to confirm or refute a working hypothesis related to an issue - for example, why Iran is seeking nuclear power.

The analysts can explore different motivations to see if they affect the link between certain factors. For example, they could explore if Iran's leadership is a factor in the desire for nuclear power, or whether the lack of oil or hatred toward Israel is a more conclusive factor. The greater the effect a change in a factor causes, the greater the correlation. Hence a cause-and-effect relationship is established. Iran's oil supply and its government's statements toward Israel can then be monitored more closely to predict of Iran is developing more nuclear capabilities.

You can find a video demonstrating its capabilities here.

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